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TOKYO -- Japan's capital has recently updated its earthquake damage estimate for the first time in 10 years, and presented its first "disaster scenario" illustrating what would happen in the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake in the heart of Tokyo. The Mainichi Shimbun investigated how Tokyoites who live in circumstances specific to their densely populated metropolis are preparing for a serious disaster.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government projects up to around 4.53 million people will have difficulty going home in the event of a major earthquake due to public transport disruptions. The scenario notes risks of "secondary disasters," including people unable to get to home being hit by falling building signs in aftershocks, and being caught in fires caused by the quake. This makes privately owned temporary shelters more important, as Tokyo has a limited number of public facilities that double as shelters.

Mori Building Co., operator of the Roppongi Hills complex in Minato Ward and other commercial properties in downtown Tokyo, has five facilities in the heart of the capital that can accommodate a combined 10,000 people by opening hallways on the buildings' commercial floors as temporary shelters. Roppongi Hills, for example, has power generators on a basement floor. It also has storage rooms with enough supplies to cover temporary evacuees for three days, including food, water and aluminum blankets.

The company in April upped the number of employees living near buildings equipped as temporary shelters and designated as disaster response staff who would come in during an emergency from 100 to 190. It also increased disaster drills from every other month to every month, focusing effort on disaster prevention education. A Mori Building official in charge told the Mainichi that even if the company had prepared the "hardware" needed for disaster response, like evacuation facilities and supplies, unless its "software elements" including human resources and training were ready, "our disaster prevention measures would be empty. We want to prepare our staff to be able to respond quickly in an emergency."

In metro Tokyo's disaster scenario, elevators in high-rise residential complexes are expected to shut down due to power outages, preventing residents on mid-to-upper floors from getting to the ground level, forcing them to stay in their homes.

The three-building Nishi-Toyama Tower Homes in the capital's Shinjuku Ward is home to over 1,000 residents. The 25-story complexes only have food and water storage spaces on the first floor and in the basement, so each household is advised to have at least three days' worth of supplies on hand. Furthermore, the housing complexes' "disaster prevention squad" set up after the March 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake has been in talks with the area residents' association to have a nearby evacuation shelter share its food and supplies in the event the tenants run short.

In Tokyo's old residential areas, meanwhile, there are still zones with densely packed wooden houses. Under the metro government's major quake scenario, multiple fires occur simultaneously in these areas, taking at least 24 hours to bring under control.

The Arakawa 2-chome district of Arakawa Ward is lined with wooden homes and crisscrossed with narrow alleys, making it difficult for firetrucks and other emergency vehicles to get to places within. The district is designated by the metro government as a special fireproofing area, making residents eligible for subsidies toward the cost of demolishing old buildings and replacing them.

These areas, however, are aging and many of the residents don't have the physical and psychological wherewithal to rebuild their homes. And so they have no choice but to focus on strengthening local cooperation efforts as the key element in disaster prevention.

Arakawa 2-chome residents' association head Yoshiharu Abe, 72, said, "With stronger community ties, we'll be able to check on each other better and provide evacuation shelters smoothly. We need to have more residents joining association activities."

(Japanese original by Shinji Kurokawa and Ikuko Ando, Tokyo City News Department; Shohei Kato, Tokyo Bureau)

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